China Alert! (Not a Drill)

It was a sensational farce on a YouTube video called “Chinese Professor” heralding the demise of U. S. global economic leadership. (“Now they work for us!” the Chinese professor crows, and the audience guffaws.) The year is 2030.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) moved that farce into cold, economic reality today by reporting China will surpass the U. S. economy in 2016. The news came from the International Monetary Fund (the IMF “oversees the global financial system”1 ), so their forecast is weighty—and sobering.2

2030 is too far away for reliable forecasts, so don’t worry about the Chinese Professor movie.

But 2016 is five years away.

“IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end,” the headline at WSJ Market Watch proclaims, and then:

The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.

And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Put that in your calendar.3

Obviously a change in global leadership will impact everyone. Significantly.

Last week the NY Times published a taste of that new experience. Are you tired of worrying about the roller-coaster world of Wall Street? Worry about the Chinese economy instead:

China is now the world’s second largest economy, after the United States, and because the country has been a leading source of global growth…money problems here can reverberate from Wal-Mart to Wall Street and the world beyond…High inflation endangers China’s status as the low-cost workshop for the world.4

China’s runaway inflation jumped from 1.8% to 5.8%. (Ours is about 3%, which is good.) American international business will be directly and immediately affected, the article said, along with those “that have been counting on China for growth.” Were you tracking China’s inflation? Do you care?

Inflation will be the hot issue in the 2012 presidential election—wait, that’s not true. It’s China’s problem. No, it’s our problem, too. Wait. I’m confused.

Hopefully the Chinese will vote for the right political party and leaders to end inflation—wait, that’s not right. They don’t have free elections or free speech in Communist China. The Chinese worker probably will never hear about their looming disaster.

Hopefully the Communist leaders know how to handle inflation—wait, that’s not right either. Communist regimes are notoriously inept at handling economies, much less free market ones. The economic success in China is strictly due to their extreme cruelty, as the the world knows. Chinese workers are paid slave wages, and their leaders care little for worker safety. (Hundreds of workers died while constructing Olympic city, as the world watched indifferently.) The rest of the world cares little for Chinese workers, too. China keeps manufacturing prices low through its cruelty, not its economic savvy.

There’s really nothing to do but watch what happens in 2016.

In the meanwhile, let’s enjoy “Peace and Safety” while we can. It’s the shape of the future. (Read 1 Thessalonians 5 for the rest of the story.)

1. see IMF at Wikipedia [↩]
2. Many thanks to Alex Aavdyev for this Market Watch article. [↩]
3. From Market Watch, IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end. [↩]
4. See NY Times, “Inflation in China Poses Big Threat to Global Trade.” Published 2011/04/18. [↩]

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